Inflation Eases, Growth Picks Up, Crisil’s Economic Forecast For FY26

India’s economy is poised to grow at 6.5 percent in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), slightly surpassing the 6.4 percent growth forecast for the current fiscal year, according to a recent report by Crisil.

The report underscores that a combination of lower inflation and anticipated rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will support economic growth, assuming there are no major global shocks and the country experiences a normal monsoon.

“Lower inflation and the RBI’s rate cuts are expected to lift growth next fiscal, assuming a normal monsoon and lower crude oil prices,” the report said.

While government spending will continue to be a key growth driver, Crisil highlighted that the fiscal impulse will weaken as fiscal consolidation advances. A critical factor for sustaining growth would be the revival of private sector investments, which need to gain momentum.

Export prospects, however, face headwinds due to global trade challenges, including tariff hikes by the United States.

On the inflation front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected to decline from 4.7 percent in FY25 to 4.4 percent in FY26, largely due to favorable monsoon expectations, a high base effect in food inflation, and softer global commodity prices. Nevertheless, non-food inflation may see a slight uptick due to an adverse base effect.

If inflation approaches the RBI’s target of 4 percent, it could pave the way for further rate cuts, potentially boosting economic activity.

India’s fiscal deficit, which stood at 5.6 percent of GDP in FY24, is expected to decrease to 4.8 percent in FY25 and further to 4.4 percent in FY26. This improvement will be driven by controlled revenue spending while maintaining a strong emphasis on capital expenditure.

On the external front, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to widen from 1.0 percent of GDP in FY25 to 1.3 percent in FY26, primarily due to export challenges linked to U.S. trade policies. Despite this, a strong services trade balance, steady remittances, and lower crude oil prices are anticipated to limit the deficit’s expansion.

The Indian rupee is projected to depreciate gradually, averaging Rs 86 per dollar in FY25 and Rs 87 per dollar in FY26. Crisil warned that geopolitical uncertainties could lead to currency market volatility despite the CAD remaining under control.

(Inputs from ANI)

India’s Manufacturing PMI Reaches Six-Month High Amid Strong Demand

India’s manufacturing sector witnessed a strong start to 2025, rebounding from a period of moderated growth in December. With new orders rising at the fastest pace since last July, the sector benefitted from a sharp increase in exports, marking the steepest upturn in nearly 14 years, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI for January.

The survey highlighted a stronger expansion in output, supported by robust domestic and international demand.

“India’s final manufacturing PMI reached a six-month high in January. Domestic and export demand contributed to the rise in new orders. The employment PMI indicated job creation in the manufacturing sector, with the index reaching its highest level since the series began. Input cost inflation eased for a second consecutive month, reducing the need for manufacturers to increase final output prices,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.

Cost pressures eased to their lowest level in 11 months, yet selling prices continued to rise due to buoyant demand and strengthened business confidence, the report stated.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from December’s 56.4 to 57.7 in January, indicating an expansion in the sector’s activity. The pace of growth was the highest since July and surpassed the long-term average. PMI values range between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion compared to the previous month and below 50 indicating contraction.

Manufacturers reported an increase in new orders, citing improved domestic demand and growth in international sales. Total new business expanded at the fastest rate in six months.

International demand for Indian goods also strengthened in January, with panellists observing higher orders from various global markets. The growth rate in new export orders was the highest recorded in nearly 14 years, according to the PMI report.

As a result, manufacturers continued scaling up production volumes, with the latest increase being substantial and the fastest since October 2024.

The report also highlighted increased business confidence, with nearly 32 per cent of surveyed companies expecting growth in output, while only 1 per cent anticipated a decline.

Strong sales and positive market sentiment led companies to expand their workforce at the beginning of the fourth fiscal quarter (January-March), reinforcing expectations of sustained growth in the sector.

 

Taiwan Bans Government Departments From Using DeepSeek AI

Taiwan on Monday banned government departments from using Chinese startup DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) service as it was a security risk, toughening language from last week which said it should not be used.

Democratically governed Taiwan has long been wary of Chinese technology given Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the island and its military and political threats against the government in Taipei.

During a cabinet meeting, Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said DeepSeek was banned from use in all government agencies “to ensure the country’s information security”, his office said in a statement.

There were also concerns about censorship on DeepSeek and the risk of data ending up in China, the statement said.

Taiwan’s digital ministry had said on Friday that government departments should not use DeepSeek, but did not specifically say it was banned.

Authorities in South Korea, France, Italy and Ireland and other countries have also been looking into DeepSeek’s use of personal data.

(Reuters)

Rubio Tells Panama To End China’s Influence Of Canal Or Face US Action

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday warned Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino that Washington will “take measures necessary” if Panama does not immediately take steps to end what President Donald Trump sees as China’s influence and control over the Panama Canal.

Mulino, after the talks with the top U.S. diplomat in Panama City, signaled he would review agreements involving China and Chinese businesses, and announced further cooperation with the U.S. on migration, but reiterated that his country’s sovereignty over the world’s second busiest waterway is not up for discussion.

Rubio delivered a message from Trump that China’s presence – through a Hong Kong-based company operating two ports near the canal’s entrances – was a threat to the waterway and a violation of the U.S.-Panama treaty, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement.

“Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty,” Bruce said.

Rubio did not spell out exactly what steps Panama must take or what U.S. retaliation would look like.

Upon returning to office, Trump threatened to take control of the Panama Canal, built by the United States in the early 20th century and handed over to Panama in 1999, claiming the canal is being operated by Beijing.

He has refused to rule out use of military force over Panama, drawing criticism from Washington’s Latin American friends and foes alike. On Sunday, Trump said that he did not think troops would be necessary, but that Panama had violated the agreement and the United States would take back the canal.

“China’s running the Panama Canal. That was not given to China, that was given to Panama – foolishly – but they violated the agreement, and we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen,” Trump told reporters.

“I don’t think troops will be necessary in Panama,” he added.

Rubio, a longtime China hawk during his Senate career, said last week on Sirius XM’s The Megyn Kelly Show that China could use the ports to shut down the canal, a vital route for U.S. shipping, in the event of a conflict between Beijing and Washington.

Mulino said his meeting with Rubio was respectful and cordial. He showed willingness to review some Chinese businesses in Panama, including a key 25-year concession to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings, renewed in 2021 for the operation of ports at both entrances of the canal, pending the results of an audit.

The contract has been targeted by U.S. lawmakers and the government as an example of China’s expansion in Panama, which they claim goes against a neutrality treaty signed by both countries in 1977.

Panama’s government and some experts reject that assertion, mainly because the ports are not part of the canal’s operations. The canal is operated by the Panama Canal Authority, an autonomous agency overseen by the Panamanian government.

A broad agreement between Panama and China to contribute to China’s Belt and Road initiative, under which the Asian country expanded investment in Panama during previous administrations, will not be renewed, Mulino said.

“We’ll study the possibility of terminating it early,” he added.

“I do not feel that there is any real threat at this time against the (neutrality) treaty, its validity, and much less the use of military force to make the treaty,” Mulino said, adding that it will be important to have face-to-face talks with Trump.

FIRST TOUR

Rubio later visited the Miraflores Locks through which ships pass between the Pacific and the canal. Canal officials briefed Rubio as a Panamanian-flagged LPG carrier entered a lock from the canal to descend to the Pacific.

China has said it plays no part in operating the canal and that it respects Panama’s sovereignty and independence over the waterway.

“Never ever has China interfered,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said when asked about the U.S. claims last month, adding that China recognizes the canal as “a permanently neutral international waterway.”

Rubio is touring Central America and the Caribbean on his first foray in the post as he seeks to refocus U.S. diplomacy on the Western Hemisphere – in part to recruit help in stemming migration toward the U.S. southern border.

The visit also reflects a U.S. desire to counter China’s growing economic and political influence in Latin America.

Mulino also announced that a memorandum of understanding signed in July with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could be expanded so Venezuelans, Colombians and Ecuadoreans can be returned from the perilous Darien Gap at U.S. cost, through an airstrip in Panama.

The Darien Gap connects Colombia with the Central American nation of Panama and increasing numbers of migrants were making the journey north to reach the United States.

Rubio has ordered the State Department to put migration issues at the center of its diplomacy with countries in the region. Officials have said Rubio will use the trip to smooth the acceptance of U.S. deportation flights to the region.

(Reuters)

Coal Sector Records Steady Growth: Production Up by 5.88% and Dispatch Up by 5.73% Upto January 2025

India’s coal sector continues to demonstrate resilience and growth, achieving steady progress in both production and dispatch during April 2024 – January 2025. Total coal production during January 2025 has reached 104.43 MT, reflecting 4.38% increase over 100.05 MT recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year. The contribution from Captive, Commercial and Other Entities for January 2025 has also been particularly strong, with production surging to 19.68 MT, 31.07% rise from 15.01 MT in the corresponding period of the previous year.

On a broader scale, the cumulative coal production up to January 2025 has climbed to 830.66 MT, marking a 5.88% increase from 784.51 MT recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, Coal dispatch has also kept pace with this growth. The total coal dispatch during January 2025 stands at 92.40 MT, registering 6.31% increase from 86.92 MT in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Coal dispatch from Captive and Other Entities for January 2025 has also shown remarkable growth, reaching 17.72 MT as compared to 13.64 MT in the corresponding period of the previous year, reflecting 29.94% increase. Meanwhile, the cumulative coal dispatch up to January 2025 has risen to 843.75 MT, marking 5.73% increase from 798.02 MT recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year.

These figures underscore the sector’s strong performance in ensuring a consistent energy supply. The Ministry of Coal remains steadfast in its commitment to enhancing the sector’s productivity, ensuring energy security, and supporting the country’s economic growth.

Asian Stocks Slump, Dollar Soars As Trump Tariffs Trigger Trade War Fear

Asian stock markets slumped on Monday and U.S. equity futures pointed sharply lower after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China triggered fears of a broad trade war and hit to global growth.

The U.S. dollar shot to a record peak against the Chinese yuan in offshore trading, and its highest against Canada’s currency since 2003 and the strongest against the Mexican peso since 2022.

Japan’s Nikkei share average tumbled as much as 2.3% in early trading, and Australia’s benchmark – which often functions as a proxy for Chinese markets – slumped more than 2%.

Stocks in Hong Kong, which include listings of Chinese companies, fell 1.9% after a Lunar New Year holiday. China’s markets resume trading following the holidays on Wednesday.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures  sank 2.7%.

Trump followed through with threats to slap Canada and Mexico with duties of 25% and China with a 10% levy at the weekend, calling them necessary to combat the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S..

Canada and Mexico immediately vowed retaliatory measures, and China said it would challenge Trump’s levies at the World Trade Organization.

The tariffs, outlined in three executive orders, are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

Trump’s move was the first strike in what could usher in a destructive global trade war and drive a surge in U.S. inflation that would “come even faster and be larger than we initially expected,” said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.

A model gauging the economic impact of Trump’s tariff plan from EY chief economist Greg Daco suggests it would reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.5 percentage points this year, throw Canada and Mexico into recession and usher in “stagflation” at home.

Barclays strategists previously estimated that the tariffs could create a 2.8% drag on S&P 500 company earnings, including the projected fallout from retaliatory measures from the targeted countries.

S&P 500 futures slid 1.6%, after a 0.5% retreat for the cash index on Friday, when the White House reiterated Trump’s plan to announce tariffs on Saturday. Nasdaq futures slumped 2.2%, following Friday’s 0.3% loss for the cash index.

The U.S. dollar was up 0.5% at 7.3538 yuan in the offshore market in Asia, having earlier hit a record high of 7.3765. Onshore trading remains shut for holidays.

The U.S. currency climbed 2.8% to 21.2547 Mexican pesos, the highest since March 2022, and rose as much as 1.4% to C$1.4755, a level not seen since 2003.

The euro dropped as much as 2.3% to $1.0125 – the lowest level since November 2022 as Europe potentially stands in Trump’s tariff crosshairs.

U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose as much as 3.6 basis points to 4.274%, a one-week high, on concerns tariffs will stoke U.S. inflation and delay interest-rate cuts.

Two-year Japanese government bond yields rose in sympathy, reaching their highest levels since October 2008.

The cryptocurrency bitcoin tumbled to as low as $92,997.86, a three-week trough.

(Reuters)

Republic Day 2025: From ‘Lakhpati Didi’ Initiative To ‘Evolution Of Banking Services’, Tableaux Highlights India’s Progress

A vibrant display of tableaux highlighted India’s rich cultural heritage and remarkable progress across various sectors during the 76th Republic Day parade on Sunday. The tableaux, representing diverse states, union territories, and central ministries, paraded down Kartavya Path, captivating the audience with their creativity, themes, and intricate designs.

Ministry of Rural Development: Empowering women through “Lakhpati Didi” initiative

The Ministry of Rural Development presented a tableau focused on the theme of the “Lakhpati Didi Initiative,” which champions women’s economic empowerment through entrepreneurship, self-reliance, and education. The tableau featured a radiant statue of Lakhpati Didi, symbolizing a successful female entrepreneur who has achieved financial independence. Surrounding scenes depicted women engaged in various economic activities like weaving, handicrafts, and agriculture, highlighting the transformative impact of the initiative on women’s livelihoods.

The tableau also emphasized digital literacy, showcasing women using computers, while stressing the positive effects of women’s empowerment on children’s education. With vibrant cultural elements, traditional costumes, and rural motifs, the tableau conveyed the message of “Empowered Women, Prosperous Families, Strong Nation.”

Ministry of Finance: Evolution of banking services

The Department of Financial Services from the Ministry of Finance presented a tableau depicting the evolution of banking services in India. At the forefront, a spinning golden coin symbolized the country’s growing economy, innovation, and inclusive progress. The rupee symbol further illustrated the vibrancy and resilience of India’s economic growth. The tableau moved through the progression from traditional financial practices to modern banking systems, showcasing technological advancements and financial inclusivity.

A woman using an ATM highlighted how expanded banking services have improved access for all segments of society. The upward arrow leading to the UPI symbol showcased India’s rapid adoption of modern technologies to ensure inclusive progress. An intricately designed Potli at the rear represented wealth and prosperity, while LED screens displayed the importance of financial literacy and the various schemes under the National Mission for Financial Inclusion.

Ministry of Earth Sciences: Celebrating 150 years of Mausam Bhavan

The Ministry of Earth Sciences showcased a tableau celebrating 150 years of Mausam Bhavan, underscoring its transformative contributions to meteorology and society. The front section of the tableau highlighted the ministry’s efforts in cyclone awareness, featuring a depiction of Cyclone Dana and showcasing the life-saving power of timely weather warnings.

The tableau also focused on the impact of mobile weather alerts for farmers, enabling better crop management and improved livelihoods. The rear sections represented the ministry’s impact on four key communities: Fisherwomen, Pilots, Mothers, and Scientists. Live characters holding various meteorological instruments further illustrated the ministry’s role in safeguarding lives and empowering communities through accurate weather data and forecasts.

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GDP growth forecast at 7.0 per cent; CPI inflation projected at 4.5 per cent for 2024-25: FICCI Economic Outlook Survey

The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for the year 2024-25 at 7.0 per cent.The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.7 per cent for 2024-25. This marks an improvement vis-à-vis growth of about 1.4 per cent reported in the year 2023-24. Ebbing El Nino effect with expectation of a normal southwest monsoon are likely to bode well for agricultural production. Industry and services sector, on the other hand, are anticipated to grow by 6.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively in the current fiscal year.

The present round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of July 2024 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The economists were requested to share their forecast for key macro-economic variables for the year 2024-25 and for Q1 (April-June) and Q2 (July-September) FY25.

According to the survey results, median GDP growth is estimated at 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in Q1 2024-25 and Q2 2024-25 respectively. 

Further, the median forecast for CPI based inflation has been put at 4.5 per cent for 2023-24, with a minimum and maximum range of 4.4 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively. While food prices remain sticky with inflation inching up in cereals, fruits and milk, the survey participants expect easing of prices in second quarter with kharif output reaching the market. 

On RBI’s policy action, economists were of the view that a cut in the repo rate is expected only in the latter half of the current fiscal year as RBI is expected to continue with its cautious approach keeping a close watch on the inflation trajectory. Policy repo rate is forecasted to moderate to 6.0 per cent by the end of the fiscal year 2024-25 (March 2025).

Given the Union Budget 2024-25 will be announced next week, the participating economists were asked to share their expectations from the first major public policy announcement of the new government. The economists anticipated continuity in policy and further momentum in reforms already being undertaken by the government.

On the subject of fiscal management and expenditure, the participating economists mentioned that the government has done a deft job on the fiscal side. It is expected that such prudence will continue as it is important to ensure macro-economic stability. According to economists, government has an opportunity to leverage additional resources from robust tax collections and Reserve Bank of India’s dividend transfer. This fiscal headroom could be used to increase the spend on social sector schemes especially to support the rural economy. On capital expenditure, it was pointed out that the target could be increased but not much deviation was expected from Rs 11.1 trillion figure that was indicated in the interim budget for FY2025.

The survey participants indicated that the focus of the forthcoming budget could be on the following key priorities.

  • Taxation reforms: The surveyed economists expected some reforms on the taxation side aimed at stimulating economic growth. Potential revisions in tax rates to boost disposable income and stimulate consumption, particularly for lower income brackets, is anticipated. Further, it was suggested that enhancing limits under Section 80C and similar provisions could encourage long-term savings and investment. Simplification of capital gains tax regime and a framework guiding towards streamlining of GST slabs are also expected.
  • Employment generation and skill development: The participating economists indicated that the forthcoming budget is expected to introduce comprehensive measures to boost employment and enhance workforce capabilities. Announcement of an Employment-Linked Incentive Scheme, introduction of an urban counterpart of MGNREGA, increased investments in labour skilling programs and soft infrastructure, and implementation of targeted policies and support systems to increase female labour force participation were some of suggestions highlighted by the surveyed economists.
  • Innovation: The Interim Budget announced earlier this year displayed a clear intention towards encouraging innovation and this is expected to continue. The participants expected further details and modalities on the R&D and innovation fund announced in Interim Budget for its effective utilization.
  • Sustainable Development: The budget is expected to maintain focus on sustainable development. Incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) and green hydrogen production and energy transition support were the key asks from the participants.
  • Agriculture: The agricultural sector is expected to receive much greater attention in the upcoming budget. The economists proposed creation of reform-linked incentives for states to implement agricultural reforms and improve efficiency; increased support for developing weather-resistant crops and implementing adaptive measures against climate effects; measures to improve storage infrastructure; and establishment of a price forecasting mechanism for non-MSP crops to strengthen the agri-supply chain are the other suggestions / expectations shared by the participants.
  • Manufacturing: The budget is also expected to keep the focus on creating a more conducive environment for industrial growth. Review of PLI Scheme to include more labour-intensive sectors and component manufacturing; creation of large SEZ-like clusters with liberal land and labour laws in the domestic tariff area; expediting labour law reforms to increase flexibility and competitiveness – were some of the key expectations.
  • Housing: Introduction of interest subvention for middle-class housing schemes, potentially administered through agencies like the Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd (HUDCO) was a suggestion that came from some of the survey participants.
  • MSMEs: Continuation of support for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises remains critical. The MSMEs need to grow in scale and size.  Leveraging Account Aggregator framework for MSME lending and extended NPA Classification Period (increase from 90 to 180 days to provide financial breathing room) were two key suggestions made for the sector by the surveyed economists.
  • Education and healthcare: Increased government spending on health and education sectors to build robust social infrastructure and support long-term economic growth were also listed as a priority by the economists.

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SAR Televenture Limited announces Composite Equity Issue of Rs 450 crore

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], July 9: SAR Televenture Limited (NSE Symbol: SARTELE) announces Composite Equity Issue of Rs 450 crore. The Composite Issue comprises Rights Issue aggregating up to Rs 300 crore and FPO aggregating up to Rs 150 crore (The “Total Offer Size”).

The proposal for fundraising of an amount up to Rs 450 crore through issuance of equity shares through Composite Issue was approved at the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company held on 20th January 2024.

The Rights Issue will comprise 1,50,00,000 fully paid up Equity Shares of Rs 2 each at an issue price of Rs 200 per Rights share (including a premium of Rs 198 per Rights Share). The Rights Issue will open on Monday, July 15th, 2024 and close on Monday, July 22nd, 2024. (The “Rights Issue and Offer Period”)

Existing shareholders will get 1 (one) Rights share for 1 (one) equity share held as on the record date Tuesday, July 09th, 2024 for the purpose of date determining the equity shareholder’s entitled to receive the Rights Entitlement in the Rights Issue (“Eligible Equity Shareholders for Rights Issue”)

SAR Televenture’s Further Public Offer (FPO), set between Rs 200 to Rs 210 per equity share, signifies its confidence in market positioning and growth prospects. 

The Company proposes to utilize the Net proceeds towards (i) funding the setting up of Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) network solutions for 3,00,000 Home Passes estimated to be Rs 273 crore; (ii) Setting up of an additional 1000 number of 4G/5G telecom towers estimated to be Rs 42.50 crore; (iii) Incremental working capital requirement of our Company estimated to be Rs 30 crore and balance amount towards General Corporate purposes to be utilized in FY 2025. (The “Objects of the Offer”)